There is a reprieve,albeit temporary, that the war threat trumpeted by US President Donald Trump over the last few weeks, has been toned down. He also clarified that America does not want war with Iran and its top priority is the path of peace and dialogue. This 'message of peace' came a day after the White House sources disclosed that a move for an aerial attack on Iran was cancelled at the last minute on Trump's instructions.
Although the global community, who had feared missile attacks by US air force and army incursion by US army at any time, may breathe a sigh of relief for now, West Asia's skies cannot be termed entirely free from the cloud of another occupation. The US has backtracked from a direct war but is continuing its efforts to strangle Iran through cyber attacks and embargoes. That being so, the 'change of mind' of Trump is likely to be motivated not by any longing for rpeace, but only by other political compulsions.
The version touted by pro-US media is that Trump was prompted for the drastic step by Iran's Revolutionary Guards' downing of US surveillance drones that crossed Iran's aerial boundary last Thursday. The White House narrative is that Iran was deliberately creating provocation by attacking the unmanned aircraft flying within international boundaries. The US also alleges that prior to this, Iranian forces had also conducted a missile strike against four oil tankers that were anchored in the Arabian Gulf waters. Thus, Trump and his team contend that if Iran, that fiddles with the nuclear ammunition in its possession, is not held in check through any means, that will pull back the peace efforts in West Asia, and therefore, a military action in Iran if necessary will not be unjustified.
At the same time, the Iranian government and its military refute such allegations, with a counter allegation that the American media campaign is part of a deplorable attempt to maintain West Asia as a conflict zone, quite in line with the sinterests of Israel. Recent events give credence to this Iranian portrayal. The nuclear deal with Iran signed in 2015, was the most creative intervention made in West Asia by former US President Barack Obama. Through that pact signed with the permanent members of the UN Security council, it was possible to ensure that all nuclear enrichment activities within that country was meant for energy purposes. However, right from the beginning, Israel had opposed this deal that could have played a crucial role in leading the region back to the path of peace.
The 'apprehension' of Israel was that they would be isolated in the region with the signing of the deal. For that very reason, it began trying to torpedo that deal at its very inception, through different means. Trump, who took office in January 2017 was with Israel on this, and naturally had been trying to nullify the deal. But when it turned out that the agreement could not be cancelled, Trump declared that the US was withdrawing from it. Following that, he reintroduced all the sanctions that had been withdrawn. And then began the propaganda to portray Iran as a terrorist state. That was how the theme of the 'summit' held in January in Warsaw became 'The role of Iran in Terrorism' - all moves clearly representing a reincarnation of what imperialism had perpetrated in Iraq and elsewhere. And this ceaseless campaign, finally culminated in the success of Trump and his block in creating an impression that Iran was the party causing provocation through direct attacks. If even then Trump decided not to go ahead with an aerial attack, definitely that should be due to other reasons.
The major driver for Trump's 'change of mind', say political observers, is that the move would become a setback for Trump and his Republican party in the 2020 US presidential election, which Trump is seeking to contest. The electoral battle has started warming up in America. Each party is getting ready for the contests to elect its nominee. Trump realises that in such a situation, bellicose stances will in any case cause only a reversal. It is also to be noticed that his change applies not only to Iran. In the relations with Mexico, Venezuela and North Korea and on the issue of refugess too, Trump in recent times has been found to make some 'concessions'.
That explains why despite the Venezuela-bound US forces reaching Columbia a month ago, matters have not escalated to military strike. But the war-hungry Trump is also giving clear indications that such moves do not mean the US is going to leave the scene. Nothing else is the psychology of the sanctions newly imposed on Venezuela and Iran. To cut it all short, the current step back is only a preparation for a major incursion in future. And that is bound to happen if, with the backing of extreme nationlists and Zionists, Trump's wins a second term.